Predicted Dune Recession on the Outer Banks of North Carolina, USA


  • Nancy M. DeKimpe
  • Robert Dolan
  • Bruce P. Hayden


Barrier dunes, barrier islands, dune stabilization, shoreline erosion, prediction model of erosion, storm surge


A stochastic beach-barrier dune model is presented that predicts the timing of barrier dune demise for the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The model was run for the reach of coast which was entirely stabilized with barrier dunes in the 1930s and 1940s. Model output statistics indicate that the Outer Banks will come to a new equilibrium over the next 100 years. By the year 2090, about 70% of the reach will be in a natural dune configuration and 30% will remain with its barrier dune.